Binary probabilistic questions are questions that only have two possible answers: yes or no. You answer by giving a 0–100% probability of an event happening. A 0–49% probability is interpreted as a negative answer with various degrees of confidence, while a 51–100% probability is interpreted as an affirmative answer with various degrees of confidence.

A conditional binary question is a question that asks “If event A happens, will event B also happen?” For example: “If Neo trades above $80 by 20 December, will NEO also trade above $120 by 10 January?“ Neo would have to reach $80 by December 20, or else all predictions would get a 0 score. Therefore, you have to predict the likelihood of the second event happening (Neo above $120) and it will only be counted if the first event happens as well.

**How are points counted for binary questions?**

The number of points is calculated as the difference between 50% and the user’s answer. For instance, if a user chose a 65% probability for the event “Will Bitcoin’s price rise to $3,500 by 30 July?” and the correct answer is “no” (= 0%), they will lose 15 points (50 - 65). A forecaster who answers 20% to this question will get 30 points (50 - 20) for the right answer. If the correct answer is “yes” (= 100%), a user who chose 65% will receive 15 points (65 - 50) and a user who chose 20% will lose 30 points (20 - 50). Therefore, the maximum number of points you can win for each binary question is 50.